OF THE UNITED NATIONS
|
|
|||||
| FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS |
ISLAMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK | |||||
High-Level Technical Workshop
"Regional Programmes for Food Security in the Near East: Towards Sustainable Food Security and Poverty Alleviation"
Jeddah, 8-9 October 2003
1.2 Policy and Program Highlights
1.5 Government Sectoral Objectives, Policies and Programs
2. REQUIREMENTS FOR ACTION: SCENARIOS FOR WORLD FOOD SUMMIT FOLLOW-UP
2.1 Major Challenges and Constraints
2.3 Resources Implications to 2010
2.4 Actions to be taken at National, Regional and International Levels
The population of the countries of the Council for Arab Economic Unity (CAEU) reached 182.6 million in 2001 and is growing at the rate of 2.4% annually. Although the average daily per caput caloric supply of CAEU countries amounted to 2910 kcal in 2000-2001, large variations still exist among the member countries. In 3 countries the daily food intake is above 3,000 kcal and in 6 countries daily food intake is below the average 2,800 kcal which is necessary to satisfy the food needs of the population. The extreme cases are Somalia, Yemen and Iraq after the UN sanctions imposed since 1991.
While the overall situation is mixed, the groups most vulnerable to food security risks are the small nomadic population, desert shepherds, landless laborers, families with very small land holdings under rainfed condition and the urban unemployed.
The share of agriculture in the combined GDP of the CAEU countries was estimated to be 18% in 2001. But this average hides the fact that in the countries with large population the share of agriculture in GDP is much higher (33% in Egypt, 39% in the Sudan and 23% in Syria). It is also estimated that 38% of the total labor force in CAEU countries engage in agriculture, but the percentage is higher in some countries (71% in Somalia, 60% in the Sudan and 50% in Yemen). This makes the agricultural sector critical for improving food security and alleviation of poverty in the regions.
Cotton is still the predominant agricultural export crop of the CAEU, although its share had declined considerably from 33.5% in 1979-81 to 22% in 1999-2000. On the other hand, the share of live sheep and milled rice in total agricultural exports is rising. With respect to agricultural imports, the dominant commodity is wheat (17% of total agricultural imports in 2000) followed by refined sugar and maize.
In the majority of CAEU countries where the public sector used to have a strong role in investment and trade, liberalization has been the policy since the late 1990's. Especially in the export sector, though it has declined from earlier levels. Governments' intervention in agriculture, which used to include licensing major crops, setting procurement prices for key agricultural commodities, and allocating production inputs and credit has considerable declined. These interventionist policies have created divergence between domestic and international prices which is now being addressed by many members of the CAEU with some positive results.
It is recognized that CAEU countries have to improve land fertility, increase irrigation efficiency, raise crop and livestock productivity, streamline market and price policies for agricultural inputs and outputs, strengthen research and extension and rationalize the credit system in support of market-oriented agriculture. In order to make agriculture more efficient and to provide a better environment for regional food security, policy and institutional reforms should be pursued. CAEU countries are also faced with a very limited availability of freshwater for irrigation due to low rainfall and severe competition from other users.
Food security is one of the most important objectives in the CAEU countries. FAO's Special Programmed for Food Security (SPFS) is already at the operational stage in four countries of CAEU: Egypt, Mauritania, Syria and Yemen. Draft National Strategies for Agricultural Development and Food Security: horizon 2010, have been elaborated as a follow up to the World Food Summit.
Only two countries of CAEU are members of the WTO (Egypt and Mauritania). At present intra-CAEU trade is less than 3% of total merchandise exports and imports. The prospects of expansion for intra-regional-trade in agricultural products are low because of lack of complementarity in production mix, insistence of some countries to be self-sufficient in vegetables, poultry meat and milk, artificial barriers to trade and sometimes political differences. The removal of these barriers will provide the needed impetus for the expansion of trade in agricultural and food products and will improve the food security of all members of the CAEU.
The estimated investment needs (including all sources, which are mainly private) amount to a minimum of US$ 62 billion 1 for the period 1998-2010. Overall, irrigation would require at least some US$ 15 billion, livestock development US$ 10 billion and agro-industry and marketing about US$ 19 billion and 7 billion respectively. Additional investment of US$ 10-15 billion will be needed also to cover the vital areas of agricultural research, extension and training, fisheries development and rural infrastructure.
Special efforts are required to mobilize financial resources. Various agreements already signed in support of the Special Program for Food Security (SPFS) are encouraging. However the achievement of food security objectives calls for an increased effort to muster resources within CAEU's member states as well as the international community.
FAO can use its technical assistance programs and activities to increase productivity, to diversify production and to promote trade growth, including intra-regional agricultural trade. The harmonization of phyto- or zoo-sanitary trade measures among countries is part of the areas while application of international norms and standards within the Codex Alimentarius is the other. Other FAO training programs would assist CAEU member countries in coping with changing international trading environment particularly on the disciplines and opportunities emerging from the Marrakech agreement, and in preparing for the up-coming trade negotiations concerning agriculture.
Most of the activities mentioned above could be undertaken within the framework of a "Regional Program for Food Security in the Member Countries of the CAEU". .
The population of the countries of the Council of Arab Economic Unity (CAEU) 2 ranges from 2.7 million in Mauritania to 69 million in Egypt. In 2001, the total population of CAEU region was estimated to be 182.6 million and was increasing at the rate of 2.4% annually. Foreign residents are numerous in several countries.
The countries of the CAEU have achieved very mixed results with regard to food supply and consumption. During 2000-2001, the daily calorie supply per caput amounted to more than 3,000 kcal in three countries:3 Egypt, Libya, and Syria. It was between 2,500-3,000 kcal in two countries: Jordan and Mauritania, three countries fall between 2,000-2,500 kcal: Sudan, Iraq and Yemen. Conflict ridden Somalia was only about 1,600 kcal. On average the 2000-01 figure was 2,910 kcal.4 This is to be compared with 2,670 kcal in 1979-81. Given unequal access to food among the population, particularly for the poor, resulted in unsatisfied nutritional needs that reached high incidence in several countries.
The production of cereals in the CAEU reached 30.3 million metric tons in 1997. In the same year, the CAEU region produced 20.5 million metric tons of vegetables, 1.68 million metric tons of red meat, 0.92 million metric tons of poultry meat, 6.4 million metric tons of cow milk and 4.7 million metric tons of other milk. The self-sufficiency ratio was 64% of total calories consumed. The CAEU's member states import annually a large quantity of cereals. In 1996, it imported 10.6 million metric tons of wheat (including wheat equivalent of flour), 1.23 million metric tons of rice, 4.07 million metric tons of maize and 1.23 million metric tons of barely. In the same year, it imported 2.38 million metric tons of refined sugar and 1.9 million metric tons of milk equivalent. This shows that the CAEU countries are dependent on the international market for their basic foodstuffs.
According to FAO estimates, the undernourished population of the CAEU countries ranges from 72% in Somalia, 37% in Sudan, 24% in Yemen, 21% in Iraq to 3% in Syria, Jordan and Libya, with women and children among the most vulnerable groups. The percentage of malnutrition in children under the age of 5 was 48% in Mauritania, 46% in Yemen, 5% in Jordan, 11% in Egypt and.5 Malnutrition remains a serious health problem in CAEU where under nutrition as well as over-nutrition are found. Chronic undernutrition (stunting) and micronutrient deficiencies are most prevalent in rural areas. Iron deficiency anemia is a common problem, goiter is endemic and rickets and other nutritional deficiencies, for example zinc, are also found.
Information about the extent of poverty is patchy and inadequate. The World Bank reports the following information about the level of poverty in some of the CAEU countries:6
| Percent of population below poverty line | Percent of population living below | ||
| US$ 1 | US$ 2 | ||
| Egypt | 23 (1995) | 3.1 (1995) | 51.9 (1990-91) |
| Jordan | 12 (1995) | 2.0 (2000) | 23.5 (1992) |
| Mauritania | 47 (1995) | 28.6 (1995) | 68.4 (1988) |
| Yemen | 19.1 (1992) | - | - - |
In rural areas, the poor are mainly farmers with little or no land and agricultural laborers. Poverty is also common among small nomadic population and desert shepherds. A small group of extreme poor, including widows, sick and disabled older people, depend heavily on direct income transfers.
CAEU was established by the Economic Council of the Arab League in 1957 and held its first meeting in 1964. The Arab Common Market (ACM) is a direct offshoot of the CAEU. The CAEU has a very broad agenda. It covers fiscal, monetary and trade aspects with the objective of enhancing Arab Economic Unity. It also covers such topics as economic planning, statistical harmonization and trade legislation. The role of CAEU is one of advocacy and coordination and not of direct execution. The work of its Secretariat is tailored to these two specific roles.
. All CAEU countries are members of League of Arab States (LAS) and of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC). Seven members of the CAEU make up the Arab Common Market (ACM) i.e. Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Libya, Mauritania, Syria and Yemen.
The ten members of the CAEU are heterogeneous with respect to their resource endowment and level of economic and social development. The member countries can be classified into three groups: (i) oil exporting countries (Iraq and Libya); (ii) lower middle income countries (Egypt, Jordan, Syria); and (iii) the LDCs (Palestine, Mauritania, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen). The salient features of the resource endowment and economic characteristics of the three groups are shown in Table 1 and 2. The following observations can be made.
First, the oil exporting group generates almost 50% of CAEU's GDP but has less than 20% of its population. It dominates the total merchandise exports of CAEU and has the highest share of intra - CAEU Trade (94%). The group possesses 21% of CAEU's cultivated land, 35% of its irrigated land and 35% of its annual freshwater supply. However, it accounts for less than 5% of CAEU's agricultural population.
Second, the lower middle income group is inhabited by half the population of the CAEU's countries; has the second largest share of its agricultural labor force and proportionately less share of its cultivated land (25%). The group has the largest share of CAEU's agricultural exports (77%) and produces the largest proportion of its food crops (about 78% of its cereals and vegetables).
Third, the LDC group is inhabited by one third of CAEU's population but generates only 8% of its GDP and has a small share of its merchandise trade (16.7% each for exports and 16.3% for imports). It has the highest proportions of CAEU's agricultural population, agricultural labor force and cultivated land but the lowest share of its irrigated land (24%) and annual freshwater supply (16%). The group produces only 17.2% of CAEU's annual cereals and 8.7% of its vegetables.
Fourth, animal stock is primarily concentrated in the LDC group (82.3% of cattle and 77% of sheep) where the status of animal health is extremely poor and hence the potential is not well exploited.
Fifth, intra-CAEU trade is small, less than 3% each of merchandise exports and imports; intra-regional exports are dominated by the oil exporting group and intra-regional imports by the lower middle income group.
Economic reforms and structural adjustment programs were adopted by most of the Governments of CAEU in the 1990s to: (i) reduce the role of the state in the management of the economy and to strengthen the market-based economic system; (ii) to improve the regulatory environment for the private sector; and (iii) to reduce price distortions.
To enhance the role of the private sector and improve efficiency of the economy, most governments initiated a privatization program. Public sector enterprises were removed from the control of ministries and restructured as affiliates under diversified financially independent holding companies.
In agriculture, the following policy measures have been taken during the 1990's: (a) removal of crop licensing and delivery quotas; (b) liberalization of producer prices, marketing for most commodities (with some exceptions such as sugar cane in Egypt); (c) removal of subsidies on feed, fertilizer and pesticides; (d) increased role for the private sector in input distribution; (e) liberalization of land rents; and (f) cost-sharing with the beneficiaries of irrigation and drainage schemes. The reforms have led to renewed investment in agriculture and encouraged farmers to raise production in response to market opportunities.
In a few countries, mainly Syria, Iraq and Libya, state control in the agricultural sector still prevails and is managed by a hierarchy of public institutions. The instruments of control include annual production targets by area for each major crop, establishment of procurement prices, subsidies, inputs delivery to farmers and decisions regarding financial and marketing arrangements for agricultural produce
Table 1: Percentage Shares of Sub-groups of CAEU by Resource Endowment
| Sub-group | Total population (2001) | Agricultural population (2001) | Agricultural labor force (2001) |
Arable land and land under permanent crops (2001) |
Irrigated Land (2001) |
Annual freshwater withdrawal (most recent data) |
Animal stock 1996 cattle sheep and and buffaloes goats | |
| (i) Oil exporting countries a/ | 15.9 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 20.7 | 35.4 | 34.8 | 2.8 | 8.8 |
| (ii) Lower middle income countries b/ | 49.7 | 43.3 | 41.4 | 22.4 | 40.6 | 49.1 | 14.9 | 14.1 |
| (iii) LDCs of CAEU c/ | 34.4 | 52.9 | 55.6 | 56.9 | 24.0 | 16.1 | 82.3 | 77.1 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| CAEU total in absolute figures | 182.6 million |
69.1 Million |
24.9 million |
37.2 million ha |
11.3 million ha |
143.7 billion m3 |
56.4 million |
174.3 million |
a/ Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, United Arab Emirates.
b/ Egypt, Jordan, Syria.
c/ Mauritania, Somalia, Sudan Yemen.
Source: FAOSTAT Data Base(http://apps.fao.org/page/collections).
Table 2. Percentage Shares of Sub-groups of CAEU by Economic Aggregates
| Sub-group | GDP 2000 | Total merchandize trade (2000-01) | Agricultural merchandize trade 1992-2000 |
Intra-CAEU trade 1995 | Net deficit in food trade 2000 | Outstanding external debt (2000) | Debt payment (2000) |
Cereal production 2000-01 | Vegetable production 2000-01 | Red meat production 2000-01 | Poultry meat production 2000-01 | |||
| Exports | Imports | Exports | Imports | Exports | Imports | |||||||||
| (i) Oil exporting countries a/ | 47.7 | 52.4 | 20.6 | 1.5 | 24.1 | 48.7 | 32.6 | 30.9 | ... | ... | 4.8 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 12.3 |
| (ii) Lower middle income countries b/ |
46.6 | 30.9 | 63.1 | 76.8 | 61.3 | 40.4 | 42.5 | 57.6 | 68.7 | 87.5 | 78.0 | 78.4 | 47.3 | 77.5 |
| (iii) LDCs of CAEU c/ | 7.7 | 16.7 | 16.3 | 21.7 | 14.6 | 10.9 | 24.9 | 11.5 | 31.3 | 12.5 | 17.2 | 8.7 | 64.5 | 10.2 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| CAEU total in absolute figures US$ billion | 268.0 | 44.4 | 38.1 | 3.6 | 10.3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 6.6 | 85.2 | 3.2 | 33.2 million m.t |
21.2 million m.t |
2.1 million m.t |
11.4 thousand m.t |
a/ Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, United Arab Emirates
b/ Egypt, Jordan, Syria
c/ Mauritania, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen
Sources: FAOSTAT Data Base(http://apps.fao.org/page/collections).
World Bank, World Development Report 1998/99.
Organization of Islamic Conference, Statistical Yearbook of the OIC countries, 1998.
Centre Islamique pour le Developpement du Commerce, Report Annuel, 1996-1997.
CAEU Governments have a long-standing commitment to social progress and equity. The measures taken to fulfill this commitment include: land reform, national public health network, comprehensive education and training systems, direct and implicit subsidies on different commodities and services. In some countries, these measures have contributed significantly to the improvement of living standards for the majority of the population. For many years, food subsidies were the major instrument of a social safety net, although, in recent years attempts have been made to reduce them. Indeed, Government intervention at the producer and consumer levels also contributes to (i) spiraling inflation and high subsidies which pre-empt productive investment in agriculture and agro-industry, and (ii) low productivity in agriculture.
The share of agriculture in total GDP is 21% in 2000. But this average conceals wide differences among countries. The share of agriculture in GDP ranges from 2 to 10% in Jordan and Libya, between 10-20% in Egypt and Yemen, from 20-30% in Mauritania and Syria and exceeds 30% in Somalia and Sudan.
For CAEU as a whole the share of the agricultural labor force to total labor force has declined from 45% in 1991-91 to 25% in 2001. In Egypt, which has the highest population, some 33% of the total labor force is in agriculture. However, 57% of CAEU's agricultural labor force is in the four LDCs (Mauritania, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen).
The relative decline in the role of agriculture, in recent years, partly reflects the strong growth in other sectors, particularly oil, services and construction. The GDP share of the first agricultural export item (cotton) has decreased from 33.5% in 1979 - 81 to 22% in 1999-2000, while the share of the main agricultural import (wheat) has increased from 14% to 18% during the same two periods. The Chart below shows the trend in the net trade of total agriculture, food and cereals trade.
Total land area in the CAEU is 802.2 million ha. Arable land plus permanent crops occupied 37.2 million ha in 2001 of which 11.3 million ha were irrigated land. Nearly 57% of the arable land is located in the LDC group which also has the largest share of CAEU's agricultural labor force (56%). The oil exporting group has only 3.0% of CAEU's agricultural labor force but 36% of the irrigated land.
Most farmers are smallholders, e.g. in Egypt 70% of holdings have less than 1 feddan (0.42 ha). However, land distribution may be highly skewed in some cases and is shown by ancient data which are probably still significant. For instance in Jordan 25% of the total holdings were less than 1 ha, and totaled only 2% of the cultivable area, while 0.5% of the holdings were more than 1,000 ha and occupies 18% of the cultivable area (1983 census). In Syria, although the average farm size is 9.2 ha it is fragmented into 3-4 parcels. The 1981 census of agriculture showed that over 50% of the landholdings were less than 2 ha and occupied only 3% of the total land. On the other hand, less than 1% of the holdings was of an average size of more than 50 ha and occupies 30% of total land.
The cropping pattern in the CAEU is dominated by the cereals, particularly wheat (4.8 million ha), barley (2.8 million ha), maize (1.3 million ha), sorghum (5.2 million ha) and rice (757,000 ha) but also vegetables (1,231,308 ha) and fruit (1,244,051 ha), in addition cotton (896,514 ha) concerning mainly Egypt, Syria and Sudan. However, in terms of value the two most important crops in each country are as follows:
| Country | Highest crop in value | Country | Highest crop in value |
| Egypt | Sugarcane, Tomatoes | Mauritania | rice, maize |
| Iraq | Wheat, tomatoes | Somalia | sorghum, sugarcane |
| Libya | Wheat, tomatoes | Syria | wheat, barley |
| Jordan | tomatoes, potatoes | Sudan | sugarcane, sorghum |
In most CAEU countries farming systems rely upon irrigation which is constrained by the availability of water. However rainfed agriculture is important in some countries. In Syria about 77% of the total cultivated area is used for winter crops, mainly cereals and winter vegetables under the rainfed conditions while nearly 80% of wheat production and 45% of barley production are under rainfed conditions in Iraq. Rainfed agriculture is also important in parts of Sudan and the Yemen.
The CAEU countries have a cattle and buffalos population of 56 million head which is largely concentrated in the LDCs (especially Sudan and Somalia) and some 138 million sheep and goats of which two-thirds in the LDCs of CAEU. Livestock potential is not well exploited in the LDCs due to problems of animal disease and poor marketing facilities.
Livestock is raised under predominately traditional systems of production. These include small farmers who raise small herds of cattle, sheep and goats in villages and around small towns for their household requirements of milk and meat as well as for market sale. The animals are fed mainly on crop residues. Concentrates are usually not given. Sheep and goats are also raised in relatively larger flocks by nomads and transhumant tribes in the steppes. They depend mainly on rangeland but in dry years they move closer to crop areas to graze agricultural by-products. The cattle owners of Somalia and the Sudan also follow this practice. The severe shortage of feed have forced many farmers, especially in the lower middle income group of CAEU, to move towards an integrated system of farming in which forage production, e.g. berseem, is assuming greater importance.
The poultry industry developed rapidly during this decade especially in Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, and Syria. While little progress has been recorded in (Mauritania, Somalia and the Sudan).
Annual poultry production in the Sudan is less than that of Jordan, while its population is 6 times more than that of Jordan. Moreover, the country has vast potential to produce feed for poultry.
A number of institutions provide support to the agricultural sector in CAEU member countries. Normally, the ministries of agriculture are responsible for the formulation and execution of government policies and programs in the sector. The ministries of water and irrigation also have responsibility for the planning and implementation of development activities. These institutions have both regulatory and organizational functions. Other public institutions involved in the agricultural sector include agricultural marketing, credit, and research organizations. However the private sector is increasingly involved in agricultural marketing and processing as well as in the import of farm inputs and some extension.
The performance of the agricultural sector from 1990-91 to 2001-02 is presented in the table below by country groups. The production of cereals increased from 24.5 million m.t in 1990-91 to 33.2 million metric tons in 2001-02. The increase of 35.5% was achieved and shared by the lower middle income group countries and the LDCs of CAEU. In the former, which had a 45% increase in output, the success been entirely due to higher yields in Egypt and Syria. In the latter group, which had had a 32% increase in output, the success was entirely due to increase of area under cereals, particularly in the Sudan which increased the area under cereals by almost two-thirds. Wheat production in CAEU countries reached 12.3 million metric tons in 2001-02, an increase of 38% over the 1990-91 level. The main contributing factors were some increase in area (Egypt, and Syria) and a sharp rise in yields, particularly in Egypt and Syria, 27% and 52% respectively. The increase in the production of maize was 31%, and was a result of yield increases in Egypt and Syria. Between 1990-91 to 2001-02, the production of sorghum (which are primarily grown in the Sudan, Somalia and Yemen) increased by 12.5%, reaching 4.0 million metric tons This increase was caused by the expansion of area in the Sudan and Somalia and by higher yields in the Sudan and Yemen.
The production of vegetables between 1990-91 and 2001-02 increased by 30% and was confined primarily to Egypt, Jordan and Syria. For the LDCs of the CAEU, the increase was only 45%.
The production of red meat increased from 1,516 thousand metric tons in 1990-91 to 1,215 thousand metric tons in 2001-02 a 46% increase. Poultry production rose by 78% during the same years but this increase was confined only to the lower middle income group, particularly in Jordan and Egypt. In 2001-02, the countries of CAEU produced 6.3 million tons of fresh milk compared with 10.03 million metric tons in 1990-91. The increase is largely confined to the 3 lower middle income group as well as to the Sudan.
Table 3. The Performance of the Agricultural Sectors 1990-91 - 2001-02 by Country Groups
| Groups | Area (1000ha) | Production (1000mt) | ||
| 1990-91 | 2001-02 | 1990-91 | 2001-02 | |
| (i) Oil exporting countries | ||||
| All cereals | 3,686 | 2,911 | 3,328 | 1,593 |
| Wheat | 1,612 | 1,375 | 1,466 | 855 |
| Maize | 88 | 50 | 208 | 56 |
| Vegetables | 316 | 355 | 3,401 | 2,729 |
| Milk | - | - | 645 | 750 |
| Red meat | - | - | 138 | 110 |
| Poultry | - | - | 166 | 140 |
| (ii) Lower middle income countries | ||||
| All cereals | 6,337 | 5,745 | 16,755 | 25,871 |
| Wheat | 2,235 | 2,711 | 6,720 | 10,992 |
| Maize | 909 | 934 | 5,166 | 7,054 |
| Sorghum | 143 | 158 | 657 | 809 |
| Vegetables | 554 | 675 | 11,411 | 16,614 |
| Milk | - | - | 3,819 | 5,921 |
| Red meat | - | - | 675 | 1,200 |
| Poultry | - | - | 408 | 870 |
| (iii) LDCs of CAEU | ||||
| All cereals | 6,780 | 9,460 | 4,298 | 5,697 |
| Wheat | 455 | 218 | 676 | 427 |
| Maize | 325 | 363 | 309 | 320 |
| Sorghum | 4,881 | 5,670 | 2,973 | 3,275 |
| Vegetables | 143 | 176 | 1,504 | 1,852 |
| Milk | - | - | 5,856 | 7,813 |
| Red meat | - | - | 703 | 904 |
| Poultry | - | - | 65 | 117 |
Source: FAOSTAT Data Base (http://apps.fao.org/page/collections).
One can note that the adoption of improved technology by farmers has occurred more in the irrigated sector than in the rainfed sector.
In 1997fish catch (both marine and freshwater) in CAEU countries amounted to 760 thousand metric tons, of which close to 50% was marine catch. This is a 30% increase over the 1991 catch. Another 10 thousand tons of fish came from aquaculture, primarily from Egypt, Iraq, Libya and Syria.
Except for Mauritania, the per caput annual food supply from fish and seafood is much below the world average of 13.5 kg. It is 0.6 kg in Syria, 1.2 kg in Iraq, 1.7 kg in the Sudan and 6.9 kg in Egypt.
The overall agricultural objectives of all CAEU countries are to increase productivity per unit of land and water by making more efficient use of these two limited resources, reduce unit costs of production and increase national farm output and farmers' income. The drive for efficiency should move forward in the context of equity, taking into account issues of poverty alleviation, provision of a social safety net, human development, and sustainability of the development process, including the protection of the environment.
Ensuring food security for a rapidly growing population is a common objective of the member Governments of CAEU. In this regard the conservation of water and land resources remains the most important. Through competitive substitution of imports, the agricultural sector could also contribute the foreign exchange balance in some CAEU countries.
In the crops sector most governments plan to remove remaining distortions (trade barriers, subsidies, price control, etc.). For the livestock sector the emphasis is placed on improving livestock productivity on small farms through the more efficient use of fodder crops, as livestock competes directly with food crops for the use of scarce land and water resources. Improved animal health is an essential component for modernizing the livestock sector, especially in the LDCs of the CAEU.
There appears to be very little scope for food self-sufficiency in Libya which will continue to rely on imports to meet its food needs and the oil income makes it possible to do so. The same applies to Jordan in view of the severe shortage of water and the potential for earning more foreign exchange through tourism and other services. For the remaining countries, enhanced food security depends on how the available resources are managed. The potential for increasing the yields of crops and livestock exists in Egypt, Iraq, Syria, Somalia and Yemen and could be a major factor in reducing dependence on imported food. Sudan is one country where vast resources for agricultural expansion exist and it could become a major source of food supply in the regions. However, a political climate to promote investors' confidence is required to attend investment especially from the oil exporting countries of the Near East and North Africa.
Several governments have consistently followed a policy of poverty alleviation in both rural and urban areas. In the agricultural sector such measures as land redistribution reducing and eliminating government intervention in the pricing and marketing of agricultural input and outputs have been taken.
At present the agricultural sector is increasingly viewed by many CAEU Governments as important for generating rural employment. It is well recognized that an increase in rural incomes and employment cannot come from agriculture alone; it requires diversification through small-scale industries, services and other activities.
The CAEU's Governments are targeting poverty among the landless and small farmers who rely on rainfed agriculture in low rainfall areas. Households headed by women are the most vulnerable. Poverty pockets are dispersed over many regions in countries of CAEU, particularly in Mauritania, Yemen, Iraq, Sudan and Somalia.
Food aid in cereals has fluctuated around 2,926,903 and 697,761 tons between 1990-91and 1999-2000 for the group as a whole, its share of total cereal imports ranging from 6.1% to 1.1%. The food aid component of cereal imports has been, however, considerably higher for Sudan and Somalia, 35% and 51% respectively in 1993/94,mainly to displaced population as a result of civil strife and conflict.
A variety of public services are available to support agriculture and agribusiness in the CAEU countries. These include extension support to farmers with emphasis on promoting low cost technologies, water saving devices and resource conservation (Jordan); enhancing irrigation use efficiency and related research (Egypt); assuring a smooth transition of agriculture to market economy (Syria); and land consolidation (Yemen).
In 1994 FAO launched a Special Program for Food Security (SPFS) targeted towards low income and food deficit countries. At present, Phase I of SPFS is operational in five countries of the CAEU: Egypt, Mauritania, Syria, Sudan and Yemen, and under preparation for the Sudan. Agreements have been signed with the World Bank, African Development Bank, Islamic Development Bank and United Nations Development Program. Agreements are under negotiation with other financial institutions. This program benefits also from technical assistance of one hundred country experts within the framework of South-South Cooperation.
The results of Phase I of the SPFS are promising. The SPFS approach is to integrate agricultural projects that aim to increase food production and productivity, while reducing the year-to-year variability of production and improving access to food. This is done through a multidisciplinary participatory approach on an economically and ecologically sustainable basis. Particular attention is paid to the socio-economic constraints that prevent farmers from adopting the technologies and methods offered in terms of different irrigation systems, intensification of crop production and diversification of production systems.
Among the CAEU member countries Egypt and Mauritania are the only member of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Jordan, Sudan and Yemen are in the process of accession.
After the decomposition of their major trade relations with the former USSR, countries like Egypt, Syria, Iraq and Yemen have tried to divert their trade to other customers, especially to the East European states, European Union countries and the Gulf States.
In the future, two factors will determine the prospects for agricultural exports: (i) the relationship between international prices and domestic prices, and (ii) the continuation or not of the state monopoly over the exports of selected agricultural products .Clearly, the two factors are intertwined. For example in 1996 Syria reduced profit margins for wheat and barley and cancelled delivery margins for lentils to encourage its free marketing. International price competition has forced the private sector to work more efficiently in marketing agricultural export products.
Egypt has a strong comparative advantage for horticulture products (fruits and vegetables) and cotton. Egypt also has advantages in terms of location and climate that are attractive features for foreign buyers. However, the country's agricultural exports face competition with other suppliers for a share of the most likely markets - the EU, Eastern Europe and the Gulf States. It is consequently of particular importance to take measures which would facilitate investor's response to the policy changes that are put into effect. FAO's experience in the field of international trade of agricultural products might be very useful in terms of advice at the levels of both individual country and CAEU.
FAO can contribute, through its various technical programs and activities, to increasing productivity, diversification and competitiveness of agricultural export products in member countries of the CAEU, and promoting trade growth, including intra-regional agricultural trade, in line with the complementarity and comparative advantage position of the various countries. FAO can also provide assistance to member countries in adjusting to the changing trading environment, complying with commitments under the Marrakech Agreement and preparing for future trade negotiations.
1 These figures only provide at this stage a broad order of magnitude. More precise and detailed estimates will be needed at the various operational levels with the participation of the countries concerned.
2 The CAEU is composed of 10 members: Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Libya, Mauritania, Palestine, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen.
3 The source for all data concerning production, consumption and trade of agricultural products is FAO. For other data, sources are specified in the reference tables.
4 An average 2,700 kcal per caput/day is roughly estimated to be necessary to satisfy the populations' food needs.
5 World Bank, World Development Report 1998/99, Table 2, pp. 192-193.
6 World Bank, World Development Report 1998/99, Table 4, pp. 196-197.
